SPCX Surges 7.35% on Starship's First Orbit; Analyst Ratings Split

SpaceX stock posted one of its sharpest single-day gains in recent memory on October 2, driven by Starship’s first successful orbit and a burst of options market activity. Analyst opinion, however, is far from unanimous.

Key points

• SPCX closed at $158.96 on October 2, a gain of approximately 7.35% on the day, with one source citing a close near $157.82 and a rise of 6.58%. The two figures likely reflect slightly different data points or timing; both sources agree the gain was substantial.
• Starship achieved its first orbital flight, and SpaceX conducted three launches within a 13-hour window on the same day.
• Options activity was notably elevated alongside the price move, suggesting institutional positioning ahead of or in response to the milestone.
• Wall Street Zen downgraded SPCX to “sell”, while Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an “overweight” rating with a $246 price target.
• TD Cowen carries a $200 price target on SPCX; bull and bear scenario estimates currently sit at $235 and $145 respectively.

What does Starship’s first orbit mean for the stock?

The market’s reaction was direct: Starship reaching orbit for the first time is a genuine commercial and technical inflection point. The vehicle has been years and multiple test flights in the making, and orbital capability opens the door to a range of revenue streams, from satellite deployment at scale to potential crewed deep-space missions under NASA contracts.

The 7.35% single-day gain reflects both the significance of the milestone and, almost certainly, a squeeze on short positions given the elevated options activity reported around the same time. Three launches in 13 hours also reinforces SpaceX’s argument about operational cadence, which has been a central part of its valuation story heading into and following the IPO.

Why are analyst targets so far apart?

The spread from $145 to $246 across current analyst estimates is unusually wide, and that gap reflects genuine uncertainty rather than simple disagreement on near-term earnings.

Cantor Fitzgerald’s $246 overweight and TD Cowen’s $200 target both appear to lean into SpaceX’s AI compute angle alongside launch revenue, a thesis that assigns meaningful value to Starlink’s data infrastructure and potential compute monetization. The bull scenario at $235 likely requires Starship to hit aggressive reuse and deployment cadence targets.

Wall Street Zen’s move to “sell” at a moment when the stock is trading around $159 implies their model sees the current price as ahead of fundamentals, with the $145 bear case suggesting roughly 9% downside from the October 2 close. The sources do not detail the specific methodology behind the Wall Street Zen downgrade, so investors should seek the full report before drawing conclusions.

A note on the Anthropic IPO filing comparison

A Reuters report on Anthropic’s IPO prospectus referenced SpaceX’s own IPO filing as a comparable example of companies disclosing policy-change risk as a business factor. The mention is contextual rather than substantive for SPCX investors, but it is a reminder that government contract exposure and regulatory risk remain standing disclosure items in SpaceX’s own public filings. No new SpaceX-specific filing language was cited in the source.

Context for investors

SPCX is now up sharply over the past week, building on the cadence story that has underpinned its post-IPO trading. The Starship orbital milestone removes a meaningful technical risk from the investment case, but the wide analyst spread and the fresh “sell” downgrade are a signal that valuation debate is intensifying as the stock pushes toward the high $150s.

Nothing in this update constitutes investment advice. All figures are sourced from the publications cited and may reflect different data vendors or timestamps.